Rather than attempt serious analysis of the underlying fundamentals, decisions are taken on the basis of some facile rule of thumb: Australia is a ‘risk play’. Henny Penny professional doom-sayers with a proven track record of forecast failure are still given space on the soap-box, to proclaim that they might have been wrong about the sky falling last week, but it will fall next week for sure. Policy pundits can argue that the central bank should have raised interest rates two days before this world melt-down, and no-one blows a raspberry in their face. If we predict disaster loudly and long, it might just happen.