OECD has a good paper on why cyberwar is not a possibility (pdf).


The authors have concluded that very few single cyber-related events have the capacity to cause a global shock. Governments nevertheless need to make detailed preparations to withstand and recover from a wide range of unwanted cyber events, both accidental and deliberate. There are significant and growing risks of localised misery and loss as a result of compromise of computer and telecommunications services. In addition, reliable Internet and other computer facilities are essential in recovering from most other large-scale disasters.

When I get a bit more time I will post my paper on why global cyberwar is not possible in the current legal and political environment. The conclusion in my paper was largely similar to the conclusion drawn above: local skirmishes are on the rise; global, or even local, cyberwar on the other hand, is impossible under current definitions of warfare.

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